Reflections of Me: It's only February?
In my lifetime, February has meant only one thing to me: the beginning of Baseball's Spring Training. Other than that, it has been always a rather dull and boring month of continuing Winter.
Cue modern technology and social media, and suddenly each February day seems filled with breathless news about the latest political scandal, tragic event, bombastic statements from political leaders across the spectrum, constant overwhelming fodder for serious comics around the globe, the decline of American democracy, and, Wall Street.
Our current President, who has surrounded himself with some of the worst examples of humanity since the decline of the Roman Empire, continues to issue impossible declarations, insults, deranged visions, and some of the most outlandish conspiracy theories, all in a fashion designed to make even the most lax grammar and spelling student cringe. Members of his crew are abandoning his ship in near record numbers, and he is finding it increasingly more difficult to find even the most despicable swamp creatures to replace them. One of the latest, some guy named Porter, has resigned after accusations of spousal abuse surfaced ( accusations which appear, without real investigation, to have some merit ) and the President's initial reaction is to say the man did a great job while there ( quite possible; the accusations on the one hand do not necessarily affect the job performance on the other ) and to remind us that the man 'says he is innocent and we should all keep that in mind'. And that is true, indeed. Accusations do not equal guilt. At least, on paper, that is how it supposed to work. Point taken, Mr. President. We understand your oblique reference to yourself, but, there are those among us who have learned through experience that while all smoke does not indicate flames YET, if left untended, where there is smoke there will be fire.
Our President wants a military parade. Okay, fine. Nothing inherently wrong with having a nice military parade now and then, to show appreciation for those who serve and have served. Veterans' Day would be a nice time, or, July 4th. Of course, to make it a National Event not related to honor or to our Independence Day celebrations make it seem like you feel it necessary to remind the world we have a military. Something the rest of the world really doesn't need reminding of, since we have our military in a score of different countries already. So, one might be reasonably led to wonder: what is it you are trying to prove, Mr. President? And what does it do for those who are there, in many cases involved in daily bloody conflict or preparing for war with another country? Are you going to bring them home, and let them be in your parade?
To go with that, our hard working Congress ( sarcasm simply does not translate well to the written word ) finally managed to avoid another extended government shutdown by passing a 2 year budget. It looks to be a decent bipartisan effort, with the inclusion of some domestic programs that needed to be continued, but also increased money for the Pentagon, a organization already found to be a bit lax in tracking how it actually spends it's money. This follows a controversial tax reform bill that seriously impacts the amount of money the government has to spend over the next 5 to 10 years. This reform bill will actually benefit many working Americans for the next 3 to 5 years, then gradually pass the burden on to them, while benefiting the wealthier among us permanently.
But, hey, our President wants more nukes, and those, by golly, cost money. Forget the hard work done over the past several decades to get world powers to reduce their nuclear stockpiles; we are America, by golly, and we have the right to threaten to blow you up if you don't kiss our feet. Or higher. ( The fact that we could also blow ourselves up seems irrelevant; we're America, and we are the greatest Third World nation on the planet! ).
And then, there's Wall Street. Stocks, Bonds, and Futures oh my. One of the very first legalized forms of gambling in civilized society, to the average wage earner, it is the equivalent of playing slot machines. Now, I do not profess to understand how it works; there are aspects of it that even the most educated and experienced of brokers find it hard to define. Usually because while defining it, they stumble across it's unjust and illegal aspects, aspects designed and used by the wealthy to increase, keep, and justify their own wealth. However, I do have a basic street math understanding of how it works. Simply put, unless you already have several million dollars just lying around being lazy, you can view it as a long term playing of slot machines. In truth, slot machines actually pay off better, in my view, but, what the Hell do I know?
So, say you are a basic wage earner. Say you have a hundred ( or, if you are very frugal, a thousand ) dollars you simply don't need for anything necessary to yourself or your family. I should note here, if you do, contact me, I will send you my address and you can send me a check. I guarantee you I will find a good use for it. But, say, you want to build yourself and your family a nice nest egg for the future, and invest in a worthy manner to the future of America. So, you look into buying stocks.
Simply put, a stock is simply a piece of paper ( like the dollar bill ). If a business needs to raise money, say for expanding because it is growing, but doesn't have the necessary funds available, it can choose to go Public. It will then release a certain number of shares, that anyone can buy, the value of the shares being determined by various factors: the current worth of the company and the projection of it's worth if it continues to do as well as it has, and the amount of money it is trying to raise. In effect, you, when you purchase one share, become a 'partner' in the company. Meaning, you share the same possible risks, and a slight bit of the possible advantages. It doesn't give you a say in the decision making process; that is done by 'controlling interests', which involve other shares that are not available to you because they cost a lot more. How that is accomplished is part of where the 'big' money comes in. However.
Keeping to my simple basic math understanding, ok; say Z company releases 100 shares to the public be cause it needs to raise $100. So, each share costs $1. You have $10 to invest, so you buy 10 shares ( don't try this at home; it may actually cost you more than $10 for each share. Brokers and all that, you see ) on Monday. Now, once the 100 shares are old, much depends on how long you intend to won that stock. Say, Z company projects that each $1 share bought today will be worth $10 per share in 10 years. Tidy little return, there, though rather small for 10 years investing I'd think. Still, you get the basic idea.
Now, say, on Friday you find that, due to a unseen medical emergency, you need that $10. You call your broker and want to sell your shares. You find that, in that week, the market itself dropped several points, and not all the 100 shares got sold, so, your $1 shares are now worth only 75 cents per share--and no one is buying. You've just lost $2.50, but Z company still has your money. Now, there are other ways to unload your stock, usually at a even greater loss, but at this point, why bother? You need $10, you won';t get your full $10 back. So, you have to figure out something else.
Eventually, perhaps, Z company makes a breakthrough, and your 10 $1 shares are now worth $1.10 each. You can sell, and take it as a life lesson, or, you can hold on. But, now all 100 shares have been sold. Somebody else saw the 10 cent per share increase and sold their 50 shares....and suddenly your $1.10 share is worth only 98 cents. Yes, they do this.
Keeping in mind that I have given only a very, very simple example here, it is in truth much more complicated than that. If you are very astute, and you have the time, you can go to a casino and carefully play and observe which machines in which locations seem to pay better at certain times of the day, get an idea of the logistical rotation, and actually make money just playing slot machines. It's a bit more effort, and involves physical as well as mental activity, but it is actually more reliable than playing the stock market. Unless, of course, as I mentioned earlier, you have a few million dollars you can afford to play around with. That involves almost zero physical activity, and certainly is not work. But it gets complicated, which is why if you are in that monetary bracket, you pay someone else to research and do the investing for you. Of course, if you are in that monetary bracket, there is little reason to invest in a nest egg for the future; you either get a kick out of the risks and you are just greedy as Hell, or, you are serious about investing in America and her economy and are willing to take the risk. A calculated one, but a risk nonetheless.
So, when Wall Street decides to go crazy, as it has for the last week or two, I pay little attention. If it goes up by record numbers, it will soon drop by record numbers. It is what it does. You can follow it as if your life depended upon it, or you can ignore it, but in the end, it will do what it does regardless of what you do. It's existence, as the laws governing it today illustrate, is as much a gambling venue as a outright gambling casino. With about the same chance, perhaps even less, of paying off. For some people, it represents their entire life's financial well being, but those who control it's fluctuation could not care less about that. Any more than a gambling casino cares that you just lost your entire paycheck at one of their games.
So, when any politician gleefully claims credit for a Wall Street increase, I just laugh, because I know they will ignore, with the same level of glee, when it drops. Certainly, with the money involved, it is a fair indicator of the overall economy. But the only way it can be measured accurately in that is over a extended period of time, say, 10 years, or 50 years. To use it as a thermometer for the overall economy based on one week or one year is foolish. The economy fluctuates daily, the market fluctuates daily; the only way to truly measure the economy short term is how one's own current standard is. If you are comfortable, have what you need, and have no worries about emergencies arising, then, the economy is doing well. Today. Tomorrow -- or next week, next month, or next year -- just might, perhaps, be a different story, and all your confident plans be naught more than ashes on a cold, windy plain.
OK, as usual, if you have made it this far, thank you for putting up with my ramblings. Hopefully, you enjoyed a bit here or there; I get carried away, I know, but that's me. There are other opinions, other thoughts, and certainly more well educated and literate folks out there, and all deserve to be heard. Even, once in a while, taken seriously. Not often, though. Obviously, I don't; heck, it might conflict with my own imagination! Thanks again, and, comments, good or bad, welcome!
Cue modern technology and social media, and suddenly each February day seems filled with breathless news about the latest political scandal, tragic event, bombastic statements from political leaders across the spectrum, constant overwhelming fodder for serious comics around the globe, the decline of American democracy, and, Wall Street.
Our current President, who has surrounded himself with some of the worst examples of humanity since the decline of the Roman Empire, continues to issue impossible declarations, insults, deranged visions, and some of the most outlandish conspiracy theories, all in a fashion designed to make even the most lax grammar and spelling student cringe. Members of his crew are abandoning his ship in near record numbers, and he is finding it increasingly more difficult to find even the most despicable swamp creatures to replace them. One of the latest, some guy named Porter, has resigned after accusations of spousal abuse surfaced ( accusations which appear, without real investigation, to have some merit ) and the President's initial reaction is to say the man did a great job while there ( quite possible; the accusations on the one hand do not necessarily affect the job performance on the other ) and to remind us that the man 'says he is innocent and we should all keep that in mind'. And that is true, indeed. Accusations do not equal guilt. At least, on paper, that is how it supposed to work. Point taken, Mr. President. We understand your oblique reference to yourself, but, there are those among us who have learned through experience that while all smoke does not indicate flames YET, if left untended, where there is smoke there will be fire.
Our President wants a military parade. Okay, fine. Nothing inherently wrong with having a nice military parade now and then, to show appreciation for those who serve and have served. Veterans' Day would be a nice time, or, July 4th. Of course, to make it a National Event not related to honor or to our Independence Day celebrations make it seem like you feel it necessary to remind the world we have a military. Something the rest of the world really doesn't need reminding of, since we have our military in a score of different countries already. So, one might be reasonably led to wonder: what is it you are trying to prove, Mr. President? And what does it do for those who are there, in many cases involved in daily bloody conflict or preparing for war with another country? Are you going to bring them home, and let them be in your parade?
To go with that, our hard working Congress ( sarcasm simply does not translate well to the written word ) finally managed to avoid another extended government shutdown by passing a 2 year budget. It looks to be a decent bipartisan effort, with the inclusion of some domestic programs that needed to be continued, but also increased money for the Pentagon, a organization already found to be a bit lax in tracking how it actually spends it's money. This follows a controversial tax reform bill that seriously impacts the amount of money the government has to spend over the next 5 to 10 years. This reform bill will actually benefit many working Americans for the next 3 to 5 years, then gradually pass the burden on to them, while benefiting the wealthier among us permanently.
But, hey, our President wants more nukes, and those, by golly, cost money. Forget the hard work done over the past several decades to get world powers to reduce their nuclear stockpiles; we are America, by golly, and we have the right to threaten to blow you up if you don't kiss our feet. Or higher. ( The fact that we could also blow ourselves up seems irrelevant; we're America, and we are the greatest Third World nation on the planet! ).
And then, there's Wall Street. Stocks, Bonds, and Futures oh my. One of the very first legalized forms of gambling in civilized society, to the average wage earner, it is the equivalent of playing slot machines. Now, I do not profess to understand how it works; there are aspects of it that even the most educated and experienced of brokers find it hard to define. Usually because while defining it, they stumble across it's unjust and illegal aspects, aspects designed and used by the wealthy to increase, keep, and justify their own wealth. However, I do have a basic street math understanding of how it works. Simply put, unless you already have several million dollars just lying around being lazy, you can view it as a long term playing of slot machines. In truth, slot machines actually pay off better, in my view, but, what the Hell do I know?
So, say you are a basic wage earner. Say you have a hundred ( or, if you are very frugal, a thousand ) dollars you simply don't need for anything necessary to yourself or your family. I should note here, if you do, contact me, I will send you my address and you can send me a check. I guarantee you I will find a good use for it. But, say, you want to build yourself and your family a nice nest egg for the future, and invest in a worthy manner to the future of America. So, you look into buying stocks.
Simply put, a stock is simply a piece of paper ( like the dollar bill ). If a business needs to raise money, say for expanding because it is growing, but doesn't have the necessary funds available, it can choose to go Public. It will then release a certain number of shares, that anyone can buy, the value of the shares being determined by various factors: the current worth of the company and the projection of it's worth if it continues to do as well as it has, and the amount of money it is trying to raise. In effect, you, when you purchase one share, become a 'partner' in the company. Meaning, you share the same possible risks, and a slight bit of the possible advantages. It doesn't give you a say in the decision making process; that is done by 'controlling interests', which involve other shares that are not available to you because they cost a lot more. How that is accomplished is part of where the 'big' money comes in. However.
Keeping to my simple basic math understanding, ok; say Z company releases 100 shares to the public be cause it needs to raise $100. So, each share costs $1. You have $10 to invest, so you buy 10 shares ( don't try this at home; it may actually cost you more than $10 for each share. Brokers and all that, you see ) on Monday. Now, once the 100 shares are old, much depends on how long you intend to won that stock. Say, Z company projects that each $1 share bought today will be worth $10 per share in 10 years. Tidy little return, there, though rather small for 10 years investing I'd think. Still, you get the basic idea.
Now, say, on Friday you find that, due to a unseen medical emergency, you need that $10. You call your broker and want to sell your shares. You find that, in that week, the market itself dropped several points, and not all the 100 shares got sold, so, your $1 shares are now worth only 75 cents per share--and no one is buying. You've just lost $2.50, but Z company still has your money. Now, there are other ways to unload your stock, usually at a even greater loss, but at this point, why bother? You need $10, you won';t get your full $10 back. So, you have to figure out something else.
Eventually, perhaps, Z company makes a breakthrough, and your 10 $1 shares are now worth $1.10 each. You can sell, and take it as a life lesson, or, you can hold on. But, now all 100 shares have been sold. Somebody else saw the 10 cent per share increase and sold their 50 shares....and suddenly your $1.10 share is worth only 98 cents. Yes, they do this.
Keeping in mind that I have given only a very, very simple example here, it is in truth much more complicated than that. If you are very astute, and you have the time, you can go to a casino and carefully play and observe which machines in which locations seem to pay better at certain times of the day, get an idea of the logistical rotation, and actually make money just playing slot machines. It's a bit more effort, and involves physical as well as mental activity, but it is actually more reliable than playing the stock market. Unless, of course, as I mentioned earlier, you have a few million dollars you can afford to play around with. That involves almost zero physical activity, and certainly is not work. But it gets complicated, which is why if you are in that monetary bracket, you pay someone else to research and do the investing for you. Of course, if you are in that monetary bracket, there is little reason to invest in a nest egg for the future; you either get a kick out of the risks and you are just greedy as Hell, or, you are serious about investing in America and her economy and are willing to take the risk. A calculated one, but a risk nonetheless.
So, when Wall Street decides to go crazy, as it has for the last week or two, I pay little attention. If it goes up by record numbers, it will soon drop by record numbers. It is what it does. You can follow it as if your life depended upon it, or you can ignore it, but in the end, it will do what it does regardless of what you do. It's existence, as the laws governing it today illustrate, is as much a gambling venue as a outright gambling casino. With about the same chance, perhaps even less, of paying off. For some people, it represents their entire life's financial well being, but those who control it's fluctuation could not care less about that. Any more than a gambling casino cares that you just lost your entire paycheck at one of their games.
So, when any politician gleefully claims credit for a Wall Street increase, I just laugh, because I know they will ignore, with the same level of glee, when it drops. Certainly, with the money involved, it is a fair indicator of the overall economy. But the only way it can be measured accurately in that is over a extended period of time, say, 10 years, or 50 years. To use it as a thermometer for the overall economy based on one week or one year is foolish. The economy fluctuates daily, the market fluctuates daily; the only way to truly measure the economy short term is how one's own current standard is. If you are comfortable, have what you need, and have no worries about emergencies arising, then, the economy is doing well. Today. Tomorrow -- or next week, next month, or next year -- just might, perhaps, be a different story, and all your confident plans be naught more than ashes on a cold, windy plain.
OK, as usual, if you have made it this far, thank you for putting up with my ramblings. Hopefully, you enjoyed a bit here or there; I get carried away, I know, but that's me. There are other opinions, other thoughts, and certainly more well educated and literate folks out there, and all deserve to be heard. Even, once in a while, taken seriously. Not often, though. Obviously, I don't; heck, it might conflict with my own imagination! Thanks again, and, comments, good or bad, welcome!
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